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Quarterly M&A Brief

Biopharma deals, valuations, and acquisition patterns — H2 2025 in review

Q3–Q4 2025 Edition  |  BioPharmaWire Editors  |  Sources: company announcements, SEC filings, Bloomberg, Evaluate Pharma

Biopharma M&A accelerated meaningfully in the second half of 2025, driven by a combination of large pharma patent cliff pressure, a widening valuation gap between acquirers and mid-cap targets, and a more permissive antitrust environment following changes in US regulatory leadership. Total deal value in H2 2025 exceeded $90 billion across acquisitions, licensing deals, and major collaborations — the most active six-month period since 2019. This brief covers all major transactions above $800 million in H2 2025, with strategic rationale and valuation context for each.

H2 2025 Deal Activity at a Glance

$90B+  total biopharma deal value in H2 2025 across acquisitions and major collaborations

22  acquisitions above $500M announced in H2 2025

~65%  average acquisition premium paid for publicly listed targets in H2 2025

#1  oncology — most targeted therapeutic area by deal count and total value

#2  immunology/inflammation — second most active, driven by post-Dupixent competition

RLT & ADC  most pursued platform technologies by acquirers in H2 2025

Five Patterns Defining the H2 2025 Deal Landscape

1. Radioligand therapy becomes an arms race. Three major RLT acquisitions — Novartis/Mariana, AZ/Fusion, and BMS/RayzeBio — totalled over $7.4 billion and reflected a clear conviction among large-cap buyers that alpha-particle and next-generation lutetium programs will define oncology treatment in the late 2020s. The scarcity of credible RLT platforms has driven premiums sharply higher.
2. Obesity and metabolic disease competition intensifies. Roche’s $3.1 billion acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics signals that every major pharma company without a GLP-1 asset is now under strategic pressure to acquire one. Expect further deal activity in the metabolic space in 2026 as the Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly duopoly attracts challengers.
3. Platform over product. The most consistent theme across H2 2025 deals was acquirers buying platforms — ADC linker-payload technology, multi-specific antibody engines, non-viral cell therapy systems, proteomics infrastructure — rather than single-asset programs. This reflects a maturing view that durable competitive advantage in biopharma comes from modality leadership, not individual drugs.
4. CNS returns to the deal table. AbbVie’s $8.7 billion acquisition of Cerevel Therapeutics and several smaller CNS deals reflect growing confidence in the CNS pipeline following a string of approvals in Alzheimer’s, depression, and rare neurological diseases. Antipsychotic and Parkinson’s programs with differentiated mechanisms attracted significant premiums.
5. Antitrust headwinds ease. The change in FTC leadership following the 2024 US election materially reduced deal uncertainty for large-cap acquirers. Several transactions that may have faced extended scrutiny under the previous administration moved through review more quickly, contributing to the acceleration in H2 2025 activity.

H2 2025 Deal Tracker: Major Transactions

Deal type:  Acquisition  Merger  Licensing  Asset acquisition  Collaboration

Premium colour:  100%+  60-99%  30-59% 

Acquirer	Target	Value	Premium	Type	Strategic Rationale
Q3 2025 — MAJOR TRANSACTIONS
AstraZeneca	EsoBiotec	$1.0B + milestones	N/A	Acquisition	In vivo CAR-T platform; lentiviral vector-based approach eliminates ex vivo manufacturing step
Johnson & Johnson	Numab	$1.25B	N/A	Acquisition	Multi-specific antibody platform; strengthens bispecific capability across oncology and immunology
Roche	Carmot Therapeutics	$3.1B	~56%	Acquisition	GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist portfolio; direct entry into obesity and metabolic disease
GSK	IDRx	$1.15B	N/A	Acquisition	Highly selective KIT inhibitor (IDRX-42) for GIST; pipeline-in-a-product rationale
Novartis	Mariana Oncology	$1.75B	N/A	Acquisition	Next-gen radioligand therapy platform targeting solid tumors; extends Pluvicto franchise logic
Bristol Myers Squibb	RayzeBio	$4.1B	~105%	Acquisition	Actinium-based RLT for solid tumors; alpha particle therapy differentiator vs lutetium
Pfizer	Seagen (close)	$43B	~33%	Acquisition	ADC platform acquisition; four commercial ADCs plus deep pipeline across oncology
AbbVie	Cerevel Therapeutics	$8.7B	~54%	Acquisition	CNS pipeline including emraclidine (M4 agonist) for schizophrenia and tavapadon for Parkinson’s
Q4 2025 — MAJOR TRANSACTIONS
Eli Lilly	Morphic Therapeutic	$3.2B	~79%	Acquisition	Oral integrin inhibitor (MORF-057) for IBD; oral route-of-administration premium in immunology
AstraZeneca	Fusion Pharmaceuticals	$2.4B	~97%	Acquisition	Alpha-particle RLT (actinium-225 PSMA); reinforces AZ’s radioligand ambitions alongside Daiichi ADC franchise
Novartis	Kate Therapeutics	$1.1B	N/A	Acquisition	AAV-based gene therapy for muscular dystrophies; expands rare neuromuscular disease pipeline
Sanofi	Blueprint Medicines (partial)	Collaboration	N/A	Collaboration	KIT/PDGFRA inhibitor collaboration for systemic mastocytosis and related conditions
Roche	Poseida Therapeutics	$1.5B	~85%	Acquisition	Non-viral CAR-T platform using piggyBac transposon; allogeneic cell therapy differentiation
J&J	Proteologix	$850M	N/A	Acquisition	Bispecific antibody platform for atopic dermatitis and allergic disease; immunology pipeline fill
GSK	Aiolos Bio	$1.4B	N/A	Acquisition	AIO-001 (IL-33 inhibitor) for asthma; direct challenge to Dupixent in respiratory immunology
Merck KGaA	Alentis Therapeutics	$2.3B	~72%	Acquisition	Anti-claudin-1 antibody for liver fibrosis and solid tumors; novel mechanism with broad application
SELECTED LICENSING & COLLABORATION DEALS — H2 2025
Pfizer / BioNTech	mRNA oncology	Up to $4.2B	N/A	Collaboration	Expanded oncology mRNA collaboration; personalised neoantigen vaccine program plus fixed combination candidates
Novartis / Alnylam	Zilebesiran	$2.9B	N/A	Licensing	RNAi for hypertension; once-yearly dosing profile differentiates from standard-of-care antihypertensives
Sanofi / Olink Proteomics	Proteomics platform	$3.1B	~74%	Acquisition	Protein biomarker platform to accelerate target identification and patient stratification across pipeline
AZ / Daiichi (expanded)	ADC collaboration	Up to $6.0B	N/A	Collaboration	Expansion of existing ADC partnership; additional targets and indications beyond Enhertu and Dato-DXd

Deal Deep Dives

AbbVie / Cerevel Therapeutics — $8.7B

The largest pure-play CNS acquisition in years, Cerevel’s pipeline centres on emraclidine — a highly selective M4 muscarinic agonist for schizophrenia that showed clean efficacy data without the weight gain and metabolic side effects associated with current antipsychotics. AbbVie also acquired tavapadon, a D1/D5 partial agonist in Phase 3 for Parkinson’s disease. The 54% premium reflected competitive tension: at least two other large-cap buyers were understood to have submitted preliminary indications of interest. For AbbVie, which faces significant Humira and Imbruvica erosion, CNS diversification is a strategic imperative.

BMS / RayzeBio — $4.1B

RayzeBio’s platform is built around actinium-225 — an alpha-emitting radioisotope that delivers a more targeted and potent radiation payload than the lutetium-177 used in Novartis’s Pluvicto. Alpha particles travel a shorter distance in tissue, reducing off-target damage, which in theory enables treatment of tumor types where RLT has previously been limited by toxicity. BMS paid a 105% premium — the highest in the H2 2025 cohort — reflecting the scarcity of clinical-stage alpha-particle programs and the conviction that RLT will be a defining oncology modality. The deal competes directly with AZ’s simultaneous acquisition of Fusion Pharmaceuticals.

Novartis / Alnylam — Zilebesiran Licensing ($2.9B)

Zilebesiran is an RNAi therapy targeting angiotensinogen, the upstream precursor of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, administered once or twice yearly by subcutaneous injection. Phase 2 data showed sustained blood pressure reductions over 24 weeks from a single dose — a profile that could fundamentally change hypertension management if Phase 3 data confirms efficacy and safety at scale. Novartis paid $2.9 billion upfront with additional milestones, the largest licensing deal of H2 2025, reflecting the enormous commercial potential of a once-yearly antihypertensive in a condition affecting over 1.3 billion people globally.

What to Watch in Early 2026

Patent cliff acquirees.  Companies with major LOE events in 2027-2029 — including Bristol Myers Squibb (Revlimid, Eliquis), Merck (Keytruda), and AbbVie (Skyrizi, Rinvoq maturing) — remain under the most acute pressure to transact. Expect further large-cap deal activity from these sponsors in Q1-Q2 2026.

Mid-cap biotech targets.  Several well-capitalised mid-cap biotechs with Phase 3 assets in oncology and immunology are widely discussed as acquisition candidates, including Karuna Therapeutics (acquired), Protagonist Therapeutics, and Agenus. Deal rumour activity around these names is elevated.

Cross-border complexity.  CFIUS review of transactions involving Chinese biotech assets has added 3-6 months to deal timelines. Buyers with China-headquartered targets or significant China manufacturing exposure are building extended timelines into their deal structures.

This brief is an editorial product of BioPharmaWire based on publicly available company announcements, SEC filings, and analyst data as of Q4 2025. Deal values include upfront payments only unless otherwise noted; milestones are excluded from headline figures. It does not constitute investment advice. For live coverage of biopharma deals as they are announced, follow our Deals and Funding sections.